Asymmetric Fast Transients

The need to implement a truly agile acquisition process is apparent. Current acquisition professionals are required to brief decisions through the chain of command using a lengthy process to execute a change in direction. Truly agile organizations create what John Boyd called "asymmetric fast transients" in order to maneuver inside the enemies' or competition's decision cycle. Our warfighting doctrine calls for trust and initiative to enable all levels of leadership to seize the initiative when opportunities present themselves. This research presents the need for development of acquisition doctrine that takes the same approach in executing acquisition programs. To this end, an innovative tool DoD should consider to reduce risk and shorten acquisition cycle time is the Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking (PREDICT) reliability methodology. How can PREDICT help the acquisition process to be more agile when numerous acquisition reform efforts of significant scope have tried and failed? The unique contribution of PREDICT is using formal elicitation of expert knowledge to calculate concept reliability prior to testing. Statistical analysis of the expert knowledge yields a calculation of reliability and uncertainty of the technology or concept. PREDICT is supporting the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) mission of maintaining and certifying the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons without system testing.