Ordinary Rebels

How do non-state armed groups change when states look the other way? States rarely engage in total war with militants, even during long-running conflicts. In Ordinary Rebels, Kolby Hanson argues that these periods of state toleration do not simply change armed groups' behavior, but fundamentally transform the organizations themselves by shaping who takes up arms and which leaders they follow. First, because life is safer and easier for cadres, armed groups attract more recruits with few pre-existing commitments to leaders or their goals. Second, because toleration opens opportunities for local governance and armed lobbying, recruits and supporters flock to factions willing to coexist with the state and pursue more modest goals. This book draws on a set of innovative experimental surveys and 75 in-depth interviews tracing four armed movements over time in Northeast India and Sri Lanka. A powerful new theory of how conditions shape the trajectory of non-state armed groups, this book reshapes our understanding of why such organizations become more moderate over time.